A Data-Driven Outlook for Shipowners and Charterers

February 27, 2025 | By the Seachios® Research Team

Brazil’s agricultural exports are set to shape global shipping in 2025, with soybeans and corn leading the charge. This analysis dives into the latest forecasts, infrastructure developments, and market dynamics driving this surge, offering shipowners and charterers a clear view of the opportunities and challenges ahead. Backed by authoritative data and trends, here’s what the numbers reveal about Brazil’s export landscape.

Export Forecasts: A Surge in Soybean and Corn Volumes

The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for February 2025 projects Brazil’s soybean production at 169 million tons for the 2024/2025 marketing year, with exports reaching 109 million tons. Corn production is estimated at 128 million tons, with 45 million tons slated for export, aligning with analyses from Grain Central’s Brazil 2025 row crop production outlook (December 2024). These figures mark a significant uptick from prior years, driven by expanded planting and favorable weather.

• Commodity: Soybeans

  • Production (2024/2025, Million Tons): 169

  • Exports (2024/2025, Million Tons): 109

  
  

• Commodity: Corn

  • Production (2024/2025, Million Tons): 128

  • Exports (2024/2025, Million Tons): 45

Brazil’s soybean exports in 2025 are expected to maintain its dominance, commanding nearly 60% of the global market, as reported by Reuters in “Brazil's braking of soy expansion unlikely to prevent global stock swell” (August 2024). This volume translates to a substantial demand for dry bulk carriers, particularly Panamax and Handysize vessels, given the typical 50,000-70,000-ton shipments to Asia and Europe.

Infrastructure Upgrades: Enhancing Export Efficiency

Brazil’s transportation network is undergoing a transformation critical to its export capacity. The “Planned expansion of transportation infrastructure in Brazil has implications for the pattern of agricultural production and carbon emissions” (ScienceDirect) details the National Logistics Plan, targeting a 91% railway expansion by 2035, aiming to cut inland transport costs by up to 30%. In 2024, rail freight to southern ports like Santos rose by 12% year-over-year, per government data, easing pressure on trucking routes plagued by bottlenecks. Additional context comes from “Brazil’s Transportation Infrastructure and Competitiveness in the Soybean Market” (CARD, Fall 2021), which underscores the competitive edge these upgrades provide.

A lesser-known shift is the growing role of northern ports along the Amazon River. Facilities like Santarém and Itacoatiara handled 15% of grain exports in 2024, up from 10% in 2020, according to “Investments in Brazilian Grain Transportation Shrink U.S. Logistical Advantage” (farmdoc daily, January 2022). These ports shorten transit times to the Atlantic by 3-5 days compared to southern routes, potentially reducing bunker fuel costs by $50,000-$70,000 per voyage for a Panamax vessel (assuming $500/ton fuel prices). However, the “Transport Budgets Boosted But Spending Will be Drop In The Ocean For What Brazil Needs” (Wilson Center, February 2023) warns that funding shortfalls—estimated at $10 billion—could delay full realization of these gains.

Global Demand Dynamics: China and Beyond

China remains the linchpin of Brazil’s export market. “Even without China, Brazilian soybean sales outpace 2024 levels” (valorinternational, January 2025) reports that 80-81 million tons of Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean exports are destined for China, fueled by a favorable exchange rate of 5.84 BRL to 1 USD as of February 2025 and a record harvest. This accounts for roughly 75% of Brazil’s soybean shipments, with each ton requiring approximately 0.014 deadweight tons of shipping capacity—equating to over 1.1 million DWT in total demand. Further insight from “Brazil’s soybean export ramp-up gets underway” (Kpler, March 2024) highlights the tight Atlantic supply-demand balance supporting this trend.

Corn exports tell a similar story, with Asia and the Middle East absorbing growing shares. Grain Central’s “Brazil 2025 row crop production outlook bright” (December 2024) notes that potential U.S. tariffs under a Trump 2.0 administration could shift an additional 5-10 million tons of corn demand to Brazil if China retaliates against U.S. suppliers. This shift could tighten Atlantic supply, pushing Baltic Dry Index rates up by 10-15% from 2024 averages.

Economic and Environmental Factors

Brazil’s currency depreciation—down 10% against the USD since mid-2024—makes its soybeans and corn competitively priced, boosting export volumes. Meanwhile, the rail push aligns with sustainability goals, cutting CO2 emissions by an estimated 1.2 million tons annually by 2030, per “Brazil's ambitious National Railway Plan” (UIC Communications, December 2023). This could appeal to shippers under pressure to meet IMO 2030 emissions targets.

Risks and Variability

Uncertainty clouds some projections. Soybean export estimates range from 105.48 million tons (Grain Central) to 109 million tons (CME Group), a 3.5% variance that could sway shipping demand by 50-70 vessel trips annually. Weather risks, like a potential La Niña in late 2025, could trim yields by 5-7%, per historical patterns. Infrastructure delays further complicate the outlook, with only 60% of planned rail projects fully funded as of early 2025.

Implications for Shipping

• Shipowners: Expect heightened demand for 50,000-80,000 DWT vessels, with northern ports favoring smaller Handysize ships (30,000-40,000 DWT) due to draft limits.

• Charterers: New routes and lower inland costs could shave 5-10% off total freight expenses, though port capacity constraints may require early booking.

Brazil’s 2025 soybean and corn exports signal a robust year for shipping, blending opportunity with complexity.

Key Citations with Links

• USDA WASDE Report, February 2025

• Brazil’s Transportation Infrastructure and Competitiveness in the Soybean Market (CARD, Fall 2021)

• Planned expansion of transportation infrastructure in Brazil has implications for the pattern of agricultural production and carbon emissions (ScienceDirect)

• Brazil's braking of soy expansion unlikely to prevent global stock swell (Reuters, August 2024)

• Brazil 2025 row crop production outlook bright (Grain Central, December 2024)

• Brazil’s soybean export ramp-up gets underway (Kpler, March 2024)

• Even without China, Brazilian soybean sales outpace 2024 levels (valorinternational, January 2025)

• Brazil's ambitious National Railway Plan (UIC Communications, December 2023)

• Transport Budgets Boosted But Spending Will be Drop In The Ocean For What Brazil Needs (Wilson Center, February 2023)

• Investments in Brazilian Grain Transportation Shrink U.S. Logistical Advantage (farmdoc daily, January 2022)